The huge 2020-21 surge in U.S. homicides, and the more recent plunge, were driven solely by gun homicides, as homicides committed without a gun have remained a constant throughout that period, University of Chicago researcher John Roman wrote in a new analysis published in his Substack newsletter. For about 15 years, about three-quarters of homicides have been committed with firearms, Roman said, but that rate varies considerably among cities with differing regulations of guns. And the trends in gun homicides versus total homicides track closely, but not identically, which suggests that gun policies hold the key to affecting the homicide rate. "Understanding changes in the proportion of homicides that are committed with a firearm is key to understanding both why homicide has declined and whether that decline is sustainable," Roman wrote. "There is a lot of skepticism about the current homicide decline. There is skepticism both about whether the decline is real, and whether it is sustainable." That skepticism can be countered with a better grasp of which policies have addressed gun violence, and whether they seem to work, he wrote.
The three leading theories as to why gun violence has gone down are that government pumped huge sums into police-led anti-gun violence initiatives, that cities renewed a focus on gun violence that they had lost, and that the criminal justice system sprang back to life after pandemic shutdowns, incapacitating the most active perpetrators of gun violence, Roman wrote. Working against these positive factors was a flood of new guns on the streets and an impending "fiscal cliff" that will starve cities of a main source of funding for their anti-violence programs. The notion that gun violence is unavoidable and impervious to prevention efforts is a "tired trope" that data can refute, he wrote. "If we are in the midst of a historic crime decline, it is crucial that we stay ahead of the trend," Roman wrote. "We need to figure, as quickly as possible, what we are doing well so we can repeat and sustain it, and critically, not replace effective policies, programs, and practices with ineffective ones. As the old hiker says, the top priority when you are lost is not to get more lost."
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