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Violent Crime Now Below Pre-Pandemic Levels, Study Finds

Crime and Justice News

Updated: Jan 24

Reported violent crimes in most categories are occurring at a lower rate than before the COVID-19 pandemic and social justice protests after the 2020 murder of George Floyd, reports a new study of 40 cities from the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ).


Still, shoplifting and motor vehicle theft rates remain higher than 2019 levels.


CCJ looked at trends for 13 crime types in cities that have published monthly data over the last six years.

Shoplifting, up 14 percent, was the lone exception to the decline.


The homicide total last year dropped by 16% compared with 2023, meaning 631 fewer murder in 29 cities providing data. If the decrease proves to be true when national data are compiled, it would be one of the largest single-year fall since at least 1960.


Among the cities CJJ examined, 22 reported homicide declines last year. The largest falls were in Chandler, Ariz., 50 percent and Little Rock, Ark., 43 percent. Six cities recorded increases, led by a 56 percent rise in Colorado Springs, Colo.


In other categories, reported aggravated assaults were down 4 percent, gun assaults dropped 15 percent, sex assaults down six percent and domestic violence declined four percent. Robbery reports dropped 10 percent and carjacking, a subcategory of robbery, were down 32 percent.


Motor vehicle thefts had increased sharply since summer2020, but they fell 24 percent last year.


Overall since before 2020, there were six percent fewer homicides last year than in 2019, which CCJ said was largely driven by cities with usually high homicide counts. That included Baltimore, down 40. percent and St. Louis, down 33 percent.


There were 6% fewer homicides in the study sample in 2024 than in 2019, a decline largely driven by cities with traditionally high homicide levels. These include Baltimore (-40%) and St. Louis (-33%), which experienced the largest drops in homicide rates among the study cities.


CJJ said homicide totals in Baltimore, Detroit, and St. Louis have declined to the levels of 2014, when national homicide rates were at historic lows. In other cities, rates have largely returned to pre-pandemic levels. 


Shoplifting has received attention from the retail industry, policymakers, and the news media amid “smash-and-grab” episodes that have gone viral on social media. Reported shoplifting incidents fell during lockdowns at the onset of the COVID pandemic but began rising in 2022 and continued to climb last year.


The U.S. "still experiences high levels of homicide compared to other industrialized nations,” said CCJ researcher Ernesto Lopez, co-author of the report. “We must continue to identify and adopt evidence-based strategies that effectively prevent violence and save lives."


Even with many types of crime falling, the overall numbers remain so high, combined with misleading campaign rhetoric in the run-up to the November elections and changes in how people interpret news about crime have led to a perception gap, reports the Associated Press.


Crime analyst Jeff Asher of AH Analytics says, “In some ways, ‘Is crime up?’ is a poorly defined question. Do you mean murder, do you mean the FBI definitions, are you talking about car theft, or are you talking about shoplifting or things that are difficult to measure? Or maybe you’re thinking of things that aren’t criminal at all. Maybe you see something happen downtown that makes you feel unsafe and gives you that perception.”


An October Gallup poll asking Americans to say whether they believe crime is up, and how serious of an issue crime is, saw a drop in the percentage of respondents who thought crime was increasing, from 77% to 64%. The disparity between Republicans and Democrats was still high, with 90% of Republicans compared to 29% of Democrats in the most recent poll believing there is more crime.


The nation is witnessing a decline in violent crime approaching the one that occurred in the 1990s. If the lessons of that decade are a reliable guide, public confidence in urban safety should be bouncing back again. This time, though, it isn’t happening, writes Alan Ehrenhalt in Governing.


Ehrenhalt cites the rise in "conspicuous retail thefts" and the "rare but heavily publicized random incidents of violence on subways and in other public places" and concludes that there is a "potent recipe for widespread public concern."


He concludes that the "broken windows" theory of policing may be " due for at least a partial comeback. This would not excuse the excesses that the strategy led to in a number of cities. But it would recognize the fundamental reality that there is a connection of some kind between quality-of-life offenses and more serious violent crimes."







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