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U.S. Homicide Drop In 2023 One Of Largest Declines On Record

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The nation is on course to end 2023 with one of the largest annual drops in homicides on record, according to preliminary figures from AH Datalytics, a data analysis firm.

The data appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the nation, Axios reports.

More than three-quarters (77%) of Americans believe crime has increased in the U.S. since last year, according to a Gallup survey of 1,009 adults released last month. A majority (55%) also said crime was rising in their local area.

"Both figures are similar to what Gallup measured last year and rank among the most pessimistic readings in the respective trends," the company said.

"Murder plummeted in the United States in 2023, likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded," writes Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics

Preliminary data from 177 cities indicate that the U.S. could see at least a 12% decrease in murders from last year.

Declines have been reported in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit and other large cities. AH Datalytics expects homicides overall to fall from 21,156 last year to around 18,450 this year, a 12.8% decline.

Other forms of violent crime — rape, aggravated assault and robbery — are likely to see a decline as well, according to preliminary quarterly data published by the FBI this month.

However, motor vehicle thefts are rising, which may be the result of defects within specific models — such as some Kia and Hyundai vehicles — that make them easier to steal.

Murders rose in Washington, D.C., (+36%), Memphis (+31%) and Dallas (+14%), among others.

The nationwide drop follows the roughly 30% increase in murders in 2020. That means that despite this year's drop, homicides remain slightly elevated compared to 2019.


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