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Opinion: Fewer Crimes Being Solved An Early Warning Sign Of Police In Decline

Fewer police to investigate crimes and eroded trust in law enforcement led to significantly fewer crimes being solved in 2022 than they were before 2020, an opinion piece by Jeff Asher in the New York Times argues. According to FBI data, in 2022 police departments, on average, solved only 37 percent of violent crimes, just over half of murders and nonnegligent manslaughters and only 12 percent of property crimes. Those clearance rates are the lowest they have been since the agency started tracking them in the 1960s. The decline can be seen across the country, in both big cities and smaller towns, regardless of whether or not the jurisdictions are liberal or conservative. Studies show that the ability of police to solve crimes is a greater deterrent than the length or severity of punishment.


Given violent crime fell between 2020 and 2022, rising crime rates are unlikely to be the cause of the lower clearance rates. Instead, Asher argues that it is tied to dwindling police forces, and an erosion in trust between communities and law enforcement after the 2020 killing of George Floyd. Many police departments are much smaller than they were prior to the pandemic. Older officers are resigning, and few new recruits are signing up to take their place. While hiring continues to be a challenge, agencies should task more current officers with investigative work and consider hiring civilians to respond to certain incidents to reduce officers workloads.


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A daily report co-sponsored by Arizona State University, Criminal Justice Journalists, and the National Criminal Justice Association

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