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Op-ed: Crime May Be Rising in Suburbs and Rural Areas

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In an op-ed piece published in Time magazine, three Georgia State University faculty members –Thaddeus Johnson, Natasha Johnson, and William J. Sabol -- warn of increasing crime in suburbs, even as data shows that homicides and aggravated assaults have dropped in big cities. “But declarations that violent crime is falling miss important—and disturbing—crime trends data that paint a much more complicated picture,” they write. “While big city crime may be falling, suburban crime may be rising. More surprising still, crime in rural areas appears to be rising even faster—and a much higher share of this crime involves strangers and guns.” The authors peg the trend to pandemic migrations that triggered moves from cities to the suburbs and rural locales. 

 

Using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, the piece examines crime stats by race for assaults, homicides and robberies: “The robbery rate in urban centers increased by 21% over the three years, driven largely by the 78% increase between 2021 and 2022. Looking at the suburbs, the 2022 increase in robbery rates hit 21%, contributing to the 40% increase through 2021. In the rural areas where the American dream of pastoral peace is most cherished, robbery rates rose by 44% in 2022 after a two-year decline.”

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