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Human Smugglers Tap Anxiety Over Trump to Push for a Surge

While there is no evidence yet that a migration surge is materializing, human smugglers are using WhatsApp and social-media groups to tell immigrants it is now or never: to hurry up and sneak in before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, the Wall Street Journal reports. Trump’s second term is creating an incentive for migrants to try to reach U.S. soil before the Jan. 20 inauguration, because many anticipate the president-elect will dismantle legal pathways to entry. Those include a U.S. government app that allows people to apply for U.S. asylum while in Mexico and then cross legally when they have an appointment—a system created last year that some migrants think will be upended by Trump. Known as “coyotes” or “polleros,” the smugglers’ business model becomes more lucrative during migrant surges, and business slows down right after policy changes are imposed. Beatriz Fuentes, who manages the Casa Fuente shelter for women and children in Mexico City, said her shelter began emptying out even before the election. “They were told to hurry up in case of a possible change,” she said. 


In southern Mexico near the Guatemala border, some 4,000 migrants formed three caravans last week and set out for the U.S., volunteers and Mexican officials said. But many of them dispersed after being quickly “hooked,” or lured, by human smugglers, said Luis Villagrán, a Mexican migrant advocate who organizes caravans in the city of Tapachula. Caravans offer safety in numbers for migrants, but are easy targets for authorities, while smugglers offer faster routes to the U.S. “There were four WhatsApp groups in which hundreds of migrants coordinated their departure on U.S. election day. As soon as Trump’s victory became clear, messages spreading fear began to appear,” he said. Migration to the U.S. surged after Trump left office amid strong demand for unskilled labor as a result of the Covid pandemic. Border apprehensions have fallen significantly this year, but the immigration issue contributed to Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump, political analysts have said. Migrants and smugglers kept a close eye on the U.S. election for weeks, and have since discussed the implications of Trump’s victory and his campaign promises to crack down on illegal border crossings and conduct the largest mass-deportation operation in U.S. history. A surge in immigration could take weeks to emerge. Recent storms have closed the muddy jungle paths and rivers in the Darién Gap, foreign observers say. Authorities in border cities such as Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez aren’t reporting significant increases in migrant arrivals. A senior U.S. government official said that authorities haven’t detected any indication that an increase in migration is coming.

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A daily report co-sponsored by Arizona State University, Criminal Justice Journalists, and the National Criminal Justice Association

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