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A Few Reasons For Optimism About The Plague Of Gun Violence

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Guns were already a major public health concern in the U.S. when the pandemic hit and the murder rate skyrocketed. The surge in homicide in 2020 and 2021 was best understood as a surge in gun violence, with firearms-related deaths counting for the majority of the increase.


In 2020, 61 percent of victims of gun homicide were Black, with the largest increases among boys and men ages 10–44. The next year, says the Gun Violence Archive, the number of mass shootings — shootings in which four or more people, not including the shooter, are shot and injured or killed — reached 689, up more than 50 percent from 2018.



That hasn’t happened. Some of the worst-case scenarios haven’t yet come to pass, Vox reports. The U.S. still has exceptionally high levels of gun violence, with more guns per capita than any other nation, and a messy patchwork of laws that make regulation extremely difficult


In some key ways, this year was better than the last.


Murder likely fell at the fastest rate ever recorded this year, says crime data analyst Jeff Asher. It’s manifested as big, double-digit reductions of murders in cities that have long suffered from the epidemic of gun violence, including Baltimore, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.


As Asher notes, “the rapid decline in murder has led to more than 5,000 fewer murder victims this year compared to the 2020 to 2022 years.”


One of the crucial concerns gun and political violence researchers had going into 2024 was whether we’d see an outbreak of unrest after the presidential election.


After the first assassination attempt on Donald Trump in July, researcher Garen Wintemute said, "The set of circumstances most likely to produce political violence in this country in the next few months are a closely contested election, with momentum swinging to Democrats, and with high-profile instances of political violence having already occurred."


It didn’t happen — perhaps because the election wasn’t a long, drawn-out fight, and perhaps because Trump won. Whatever the reason, the US. came back from what seemed like the brink of a dangerous moment.


The recent shooting of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, and the lionization of his alleged killer, Luigi Mangione, have shown that there may be more openness to political violence in the public than previously realized. Research of mass shooters show that when a shooter receives lots of public attention, it tends to inspire copycats.


Overall mass shootings appear to have declined in 2024, from 656 incidents in 2023 to 491 in 2024. No one is exactly sure why.


The assassination of Thompson in December appeared to be the first high-profile killing using a ghost gun — in this case, one that the alleged shooter 3D printed himself.


Ghost guns don’t have serial numbers, which make them difficult for law enforcement to track where they came from. They’re especially appealing for people looking to commit crimes and not get caught.


In 2022, the Biden administration said that the ghost gun kits and their receivers (or frames) were subject to the same federal regulations as regular guns — meaning, they needed a serial number. The rule was challenged in the courts, but it appears that the Supreme Court is likely to uphold the law, which the government says is necessary for cracking down on the untraceable guns.


Meanwhile, the gunmaker responsible for most of the guns showing up at crime scenes was hit with lawsuits. It appears that it has shut down. According to an analysis by The Trace, the numbers of ghost guns being recovered from crime scenes are now falling in several cities.

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A daily report co-sponsored by Arizona State University, Criminal Justice Journalists, and the National Criminal Justice Association

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